Saturday, July 18, 2015

Where is El Nino when you need him?

In Australia, El Nino manifests as a period of below average rain.  On one recentish event of this nature we were up Cape Yorke, where it rained most days and I was given, by a friend of Uruguayan birth, the name La Vieja Regonzonda (the Old Hag) gave a picture of the opposite.

On Thursday evening (16 July) we had decided that the weather forecast for strong winds at Corindi meant we should redirect ourselves to Grafton before going on to Kingscliff.  On Friday morning (17 July) we checked a little more and discovered that while the coastal winds would have died down a bit by Sunday 5-20mm of rain were forecast on Meteye for Kingscliff on that day and around 5mm per day for the following 3 days.  To illustrate this, here is the forecast from BoM as shown at 7:20 on 19 July:

The Thursday and Friday are similar, as is the forecast for Kingscliff currently shown on Meteye.

We couldn't find anywhere better in the direction we were heading so decided that, as we were about as far as we wished to get from Carwoola for a single days drive home, we'd pull the pin and head for home.

At that time the weather was quite pleasant in Port Macquarie (albeit a little cool).  However before we got to Taree (75km South) the wind had risen to be whipping the trees around and occasional gusts could be felt on the steering.  The temperature had dropped to 8C.  A good decision appeared to have been made.

Getting close to the Hunter Valley the scenery began to disappear.
As we passed a sign pointing to Nelson Bay serious rain started to happen.   Before we got as far as Raymond Terrace a large information sign informed us that

  • the New England Highway was closed between Amidale and Inverell; and 
  • the Oxley Highway was closed around Walcha.

The cause wasn't mentioned but I thought snow more likely than a bushfire.

The rain had stopped before we got to the Hawkesbury (so it was again the curse of Pt Stephens in evidence) and by the time we got to Pennant Hills the temperature had risen to 15C.  To dispel complacency, after filling up with diesel and embarking on the M2/M7 we came across further information that:
  1. the Great Western Highway was closed; and 
  2. Bells Line of Road was closed.
We thought about the confusion that would cause and pressed on to the Hume Highway on which the traffic was pretty heavy.  At least one vehicle which passed us was advertising Cowra , so I guessed that some of those who wanted to go on the Great western were heading for Goulburn and going North.

Just before (ie East of) Mittagong I noticed that the hills were rather white.  We didn't get a snap of that, which didn't matter as we - or at least Frances - scored plenty of photo ops to the West of the town.

Note the cars parked on the shoulder taking photographs.  A few hundred metres back there had been about a dozen pulled over.  Possibly they didn't realise that the memorial marker where they were standing was to a poor woman and a tow-truck driver who had been killed parked at that point while standing beside the road..
Note also the line of snow in the central reservation: clearly someone had ploughed the road.  In the Saturday Canberra Times I read that the road had been closed at Berrima for several hours in the morning.

So at 16:44 (4:44pm for the old fashioned folks who live, for example, between Mexico and Canada) we rolled into home, lit the fire and enjoyed comfort.


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